Pair #5437

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 113976

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:38Z

Reasoning: Fleetwood could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship), which would not imply a top-10 at the Masters. And a Masters top-10 does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -37.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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