Pair #5431

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9028598

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

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Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 113976

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:38Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily inside the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2990
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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