Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JSPI
Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1731
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-JSPI
Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17606
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.8300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:17Z
Reasoning: A top-10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top-5 overall finish, and a top-5 overall finish does not require a top-10 Round 1 performance. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A