Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-JSPI
Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2095
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JSPI
Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1731
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:17Z
Reasoning: If Spieth finishes top 5 in Round 1, he must also be in the top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not necessitate top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A