Pair #5422

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1731

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32750

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:17Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top-10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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