Pair #542

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15102

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12328

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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