Pair #5416

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32750

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 141398

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:17Z

Reasoning: These are two completely different tournaments (Masters vs. Valero Texas Open). Performance in one has no logical necessity over performance in the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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