Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JSPI
Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1731
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JSPI
Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 57514
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:59Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the overall tournament does not require being top 10 after Round 1 — a player can start poorly and finish strong. Conversely, being top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish overall. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A