Pair #5411

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1731

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1352955

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:59Z

Reasoning: To win the Valero Texas Open, Spieth must complete all rounds including Round 1. However, it is theoretically possible to win a tournament while not being in the top 10 after Round 1 (e.g., making a large comeback). So winning the tournament does NOT necessarily mean he was top 10 in Round 1. No implication holds in either direction with certainty.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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