Pair #541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12328

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship (a non-major) does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply finishing top 20 at the Valspar. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -73.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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