Pair #5405

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1731

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:59Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major tournament. Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to Spieth's Round 1 performance at the Valero Texas Open, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -103.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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