Pair #5404

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 141398

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:59Z

Reasoning: If Spieth finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which is also top 20. Top 10 implies top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -80.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -84.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue