Pair #5401

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7621720

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Jordan Spieth wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 141398

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:38Z

Reasoning: If Spieth wins the Masters, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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