Pair #5395

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 425

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 989

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:38Z

Reasoning: If Henley finishes top 5 in Round 1, he is necessarily also in the top 10. The reverse does not hold: top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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