Pair #5394

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 79207

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 989

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:38Z

Reasoning: If Henley leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 1 (included in top 10). The reverse does not hold: finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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