Pair #5393

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11879

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3574

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:38Z

Reasoning: If Henley finishes in the top 10 overall, he must have made the cut — you cannot finish top 10 in a tournament without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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