Pair #5390

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 989

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39704

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish overall. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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