Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHEN
Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 989
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RHEN
Will Russell Henley win the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 420370
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Russell Henley wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z
Reasoning: Winning a tournament does not logically require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player can have a poor first round and still come back to win. And finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply winning. No necessary implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A