Pair #5387

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3574

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open are independent events. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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