Pair #5386

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 989

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are completely independent. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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