Pair #5385

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RHEN

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3574

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to making the cut at the Valero Texas Open, a non-major event. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -46.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -51.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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