Pair #5382

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 989

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3836117

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are completely independent events at different tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0060
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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