Pair #5381

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 119626

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessarily mean he won (or finished top 20 at) the Masters specifically — he could win a different major. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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