Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 18947
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.4900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-XSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 119626
YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, then he necessarily finished top 10 at the Masters, which is a subset of top 20. Top 10 at the Masters implies top 20 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 at the Masters doesn't mean he finished top 10 in all 4 majors.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5100
+ ~$0.0259 est. fees
Days to maturity:
11
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.23%
BELOW HURDLE