Pair #5380

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 119626

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, then he necessarily finished top 10 at the Masters, which is a subset of top 20. Top 10 at the Masters implies top 20 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 at the Masters doesn't mean he finished top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -95.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -99.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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