Pair #5379

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 11053195

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 119626

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7580
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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