Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-WKIM
Valero Texas Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 10446
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-WKIM
Valero Texas Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7149
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:58Z
Reasoning: Final tournament top 10 and Round 1 top 5 are independent — a player can finish top 10 overall without leading after Round 1, and vice versa. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A