Pair #5374

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-WKIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 10446

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WKIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12240

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:58Z

Reasoning: Final tournament top 20 finish and Round 1 top 5 finish are independent — a player can finish top 20 overall without being top 5 after Round 1, and vice versa. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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