Pair #5371

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 237904

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:58Z

Reasoning: McIlroy could win a major other than the Masters, so winning a major does not imply top 5 at the Masters. And finishing top 5 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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