Pair #5369

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 25266992

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 237904

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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