Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CMOR
Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22507
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR
Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:58Z
Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes top 5 at the Masters, he must have competed in it. The reverse does not hold — he could compete but not finish top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.7400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A