Pair #5366

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22507

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 86628

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes top 5 at the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 10. The reverse does not hold — positions 6–10 are top 10 but not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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