Pair #5365

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22507

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Morikawa could win a different major without finishing top 5 at the Masters. And top 5 at the Masters does not require winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -16.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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