Pair #5364

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 86628

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Morikawa could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open), which would not require a top 10 at the Masters. And top 10 at the Masters does not require winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -40.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -45.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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