Pair #5363

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22507

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require finishing top 5 at the Masters specifically — he could finish 6th–10th at the Masters. And finishing top 5 at the Masters does not imply top 10 at all four majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -46.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -50.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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