Pair #5360

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6531994

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 86628

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters necessarily means finishing top 10 (you finish 1st). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3780
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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