Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MFIT
Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 55028
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MFIT
Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 125841
YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z
Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick finishes top 5, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A