Pair #5358

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MFIT

Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 55028

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MFIT

Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 125841

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick finishes top 5, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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