Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MFIT
Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 74588
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MFIT
Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 125841
YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z
Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A