Pair #5356

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MFIT

Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 55028

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 does not require winning the Masters specifically — Fitzpatrick could win any of the other three majors. And finishing top 5 at the Masters does not require winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue