Pair #5355

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20451

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MFIT

Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 74588

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:15Z

Reasoning: Fitzpatrick winning a major could be at any of the four majors other than the Masters, so it does not necessitate a top 10 at the Masters. A top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -26.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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