Pair #5354

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MFIT

Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 125841

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:15Z

Reasoning: Fitzpatrick winning a major could be at the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open — not necessarily the Masters. A top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -54.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -58.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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