Pair #5348

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-BKOE

Masters Tournament: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 149990

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:15Z

Reasoning: If Koepka finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at the Masters alone does not mean top 10 at all four majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -76.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -80.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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