Pair #5346

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14782

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2187

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:02:15Z

Reasoning: If Matsuyama finishes top 5 overall, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 5 in a tournament without surviving the cut). However, making the cut does not imply a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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