Pair #534

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ADUM

Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 436471

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adrien Dumont De Chassart wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ADUM

Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4512

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:32Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 20. Finishing top 20 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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