Pair #5339

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 251

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 necessarily means finishing top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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