Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 251
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:52Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 necessarily means finishing top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A