Pair #5338

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 106598

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: If Matsuyama leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 (being the leader means he is #1, which is within the top 10). The reverse does not hold — being top 10 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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