Pair #5334

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14782

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: These are different tournaments (Masters vs Valero Texas Open). No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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