Pair #5330

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:33Z

Reasoning: These involve two different tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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