Pair #533

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ADUM

Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2508

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ADUM

Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4512

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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