Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT
Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192
YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26261
YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:33Z
Reasoning: These are two different tournaments. Finishing top 20 in one has no logical bearing on finishing top 20 in the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A