Pair #5323

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 251

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1032703

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:33Z

Reasoning: Winning a golf tournament does not logically require finishing top 5 in Round 1. A player can come from outside the top 5 after round 1 and still win. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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